ELECTION SPECIAL

ELECTION SPECIAL

Joshua Benjamin Fimbres

If the election were held today under current projections, Republicans would win nine more senate seats. This campaign season has featured very competitive races in states where Democrats had previously made gains. States that the Obama campaign had won in the 2008 such as Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio as well as Missouri, where the margin of McCain’s victory was less than one percent, are now switching back to Republican candidates. According to recent polls, races in those states appear to be trending Republican.

In Missouri Republican Roy Blunt is up 51% to 43% against his Democrat challenger Robin Carnahan. In this election cycle Republicans are targeting states that have traditionally been Democratic areas. Polls from Pennsylvania show Toomey (R) beating Sestak (D) 49% to 41%. In West Virginia, Senator Byrd’s seat is up for grabs, as Governor Manchin (D) and John Raese (R) battle it out. Rasmussen polls show Raese up 50% to 44%.

States such as California and Washington are surprisingly competitive despite both being solid blue states. Senator Barbara Boxer (D) is facing a challenge from Carly Fiorina (R). Rasmussen polls show Boxer up 47% to 43%. In Washington incumbent Democrat Patty Murray is slightly behind Republican candidate Dino Rossi 49% to 46%. In Wisconsin, it appears that Senator Russ Feingold (D) is not boding well against Ron Johnson (R). Rasmussen polls show Johnson ahead by a whopping 12%.

It seems the only safe races for Democrats this election cycle are in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, and Oregon. Delaware only recently became a safe bet for Democrats as controversial candidate Christine O’Donnell stormed onto the political stage after beating Rep. Mike Castle for the Republican nomination. Rasmussen shows her behind her opponent, Chris Coons, by a 15% margin. According to recent projections Republicans only need to pick up one more seat from the map above to win control of the senate, assuming that current projections hold. As Washington State appears to be trending towards the Republican, Rossi may end up being the “51^st Senator”. Although a strong showing from Fiorina in California or Linda McMahon in Connecticut could swing to the Republicans if there is a “GOP wave election”

Additional Reading

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/